CHESTERTONS MOROCCO RESEARCH
Morocco property market |
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Data through Q1 2026 | Published August 2026
PROPRIETARY MARKET ANALYSIS
Jawad El Hassani Sbai
CEO, Chestertons Morocco
Signed for publication | August 2026
Global vision. Local expertise.
Jawad's market reading
MY MACRO VIEW I read Q1 2026 as a broad liquidity shock, not a nationwide price collapse. Transactions fell 40.2% from Q4, while prices fell 2.4%; year-on-year, the respective declines were a much smaller 9.3% and 0.4%. |
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In my analysis, the distinction between quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year measures is essential. Bank Al-Maghrib and ANCFCC publish non-seasonally adjusted data, so the Q4-to-Q1 comparison captures a recurrent calendar reset as well as genuine weakness. The annual transaction decline confirms a softer market, but it is far less severe than the headline quarterly fall.
Segment | Price q/q | Price y/y | Transactions q/q | Transactions y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
All property | -2.4% | -0.4% | -40.2% | -9.3% |
Residential | -3.0% | -0.6% | -38.4% | -10.7% |
Urban land | -3.0% | -0.6% | -45.9% | -6.8% |
Professional | -0.8% | -0.1% | -40.2% | -3.6% |
Source: Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC Q1 2026 IPAI bulletin. Figures are not seasonally adjusted.
What changed this quarter
Residential property led the price correction. Villas fell 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, compared with 2.7% for both apartments and houses. On activity, houses and villas recorded the steepest falls, at 51.6% and 53.1%. Professional property was more price-resilient: retail units were flat year-on-year, and office transactions increased 2.0% year-on-year even though office prices fell 1.4%.
MY CONCLUSION A market can freeze before prices fully adjust. Q1 2026 shows sellers and buyers stepping back faster than valuations are clearing. |
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The liquidity-price gap
Figure 1. Price and transaction changes by asset type
Source: Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC, Q1 2026; Chestertons Morocco Research, analysis by Jawad El Hassani Sbai.
Interpretation
The decline was broad: every national price category fell quarter-on-quarter. Yet the magnitude differs sharply. The 40.2% fall in transactions is roughly seventeen times the 2.4% fall in prices. This is consistent with an illiquid adjustment phase in which fewer deals close, rather than a uniform repricing of the stock of property.
The annual comparison is the cleaner macro signal for this quarter. Prices were only 0.4% below Q1 2025, while transactions were 9.3% lower. This points to real demand weakness, but it also warns against describing the quarterly transaction change as a structural 40% contraction without seasonal adjustment.
Asset hierarchy
Villas carried the greatest quarterly price stress, while houses carried the greatest annual transaction stress (-25.3%). Professional assets remained the least weak on annual prices. This hierarchy matters for portfolio decisions: the national aggregate mixes segments with very different liquidity, financing dependence, and sample depth.
Long-run price tendency
Figure 2. National IPAI index levels since 2016
Source: detailed Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC workbook supplied; calculations by Jawad El Hassani Sbai for Chestertons Morocco Research. Base 100 = 2006.
At 105.5, the all-property index stands only 5.5% above its 2006 base. It is 7.2% below its Q4 2020 peak, 5.7% below Q1 2021 and 1.1% below Q1 2016. The implied nominal compound gain since 2006 is about 0.27% a year. Because the IPAI is not an inflation-adjusted return index, it should not be read as a measure of real wealth creation or rental performance.
The Q1 2026 all-property decline ranks near the bottom of prior Q1 observations in the workbook. Even so, one quarter is not a trend break by itself: the latest observation is subject to revision as registrations arrive and repeat-sale pairs are incorporated.
Structural message
National prices have been broadly range-bound since the 2020-2021 high, with urban land consistently above other major categories but also more cyclical. The latest quarter pulls residential and professional indices back toward the 2006 baseline, underscoring a long period of weak nominal appreciation at the aggregate level.
The geography of the reset
Figure 3. Major-city price and transaction changes
Source: Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC Q1 2026 bulletin; Chestertons Morocco Research, analysis by Jawad El Hassani Sbai.
Rabat was the weakest major city on prices (-4.7%) and also recorded the largest transaction decline (-55.4%). Marrakech was mid-table on price performance (-1.5%) but second-weakest on turnover (-51.5%). Oujda was the only listed city with a positive headline price move (+0.2%).
City | Prices q/q | Transactions q/q | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
Oujda | +0.2% | -34.8% | Only positive price move |
Marrakech | -1.5% | -51.5% | Resilient prices, thin liquidity |
Casablanca | -2.7% | -37.8% | Broad correction |
Tanger | -3.9% | -36.4% | Land and retail led price fall |
Rabat | -4.7% | -55.4% | Deepest combined contraction |
External evidence: what corroborates the data
Credit was expanding, but that did not translate into stronger registered sales
The Ministry of Economy and Finance's May 2026 note reports that outstanding real-estate credit grew 3.4% year-on-year at end-March to more than MAD 323.4 billion. Housing credit rose 2.9% and developer credit 4.8%. These are stock measures, not new loan originations; they therefore coexist with weaker transaction flows and should not be treated as proof of near-term demand recovery.
Construction started the year with a weather- and calendar-related setback
DEPF reported cement sales down 10.9% in Q1 2026 after severe January-February rainfall and the timing of Ramadan, followed by a 2.5% rise in March. This supports a cautious supply-side reading: part of the early-year weakness reflects disrupted activity, but the nationwide sales slowdown is visible beyond construction alone.
Policy support is meaningful but concentrated
The direct housing-aid programme had reached 101,521 beneficiaries by 7 May 2026, with more than MAD 41 billion of homes acquired and close to MAD 8 billion of state support. Sixty per cent of beneficiaries were described as middle class and 24% as Moroccans living abroad. The programme is a demand cushion, especially in the eligible price bands, but the IPAI spans a wider market.
Media coverage confirms the slowdown - and illustrates why primary data must control
TelQuel and other Moroccan outlets correctly emphasised the 0.4% annual price decline and 9.3% annual transaction decline. Some coverage mixed Marrakech's residential transaction fall (-53.3%) with its global figure (-51.5%). This report uses the primary Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC tables whenever media summaries differ.
My outlook and quarterly watchlist
MY BASE CASE I expect a partial Q2 activity rebound after the Q1 calendar reset, but annual transaction growth remains the more reliable test of stabilisation. Price performance should remain uneven by city and asset type. |
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Upside path
A stronger normalisation would require transaction volumes to improve year-on-year, housing-credit growth to be accompanied by better new-loan production, and construction activity to sustain the rebound seen after February. Housing aid and investment spending provide support, while tourism and MRE demand may reinforce selected cities and price bands.
Downside path
If the annual transaction decline deepens while prices remain slow to adjust, time-on-market and seller concessions may rise before the index reflects a larger correction. Residential villas and houses are the most exposed national subsegments in the latest data.
Primary data
ANCFCC / Bank Al-Maghrib - IPAI Q1 2026 bulletin - https://www.ancfcc.gov.ma/media/ipai/ipai-t1-2026-fr.pdf
ANCFCC IPAI publication archive - https://www.ancfcc.gov.ma/IndicePrixImmobiliers/
Detailed Q1 2026 IPAI workbook (client-supplied file: BKAM Series IPAI T1 2026.xlsx)
Corroborating official sources
DEPF Note de Conjoncture No. 349 - https://www.finances.gov.ma/Publication/depf/2026/nc_349.pdf (cement and January real-estate credit)
DEPF Note de Conjoncture No. 351 - https://www.finances.gov.ma/Publication/depf/2026/nc_351.pdf (Q1 credit and construction)
Morocco direct housing-aid programme update - https://maroc.ma/fr/actualites/aide-directe-au-logement-plus-de-101000-beneficiaires-au-7-mai-courant
Observatoire du Tourisme - https://observatoiredutourisme.ma/ (context beyond Q1; not used to calculate IPAI)
Media corroboration
TelQuel - Q1 2026 IPAI coverage - https://telquel.ma/instant-t/2026/06/22/immobilier-lindice-des-prix-recule-de-04-au-t1-2026_1995264/
Hespress English - market slowdown coverage - https://en.hespress.com/141395-moroccos-housing-market-slumps-as-property-transactions-fall-40.html
L'Opinion - participatory housing finance - https://lopinion.ma/fr/actu-maroc/credits-a-lhabitat--le-financement-participatif-progresse-de-194--a-304-milliards-de-dirhams_a14013
Image licensing
Rabat photograph - Steven C. Price, CC BY-SA 4.0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:View-of-Rabat-from-Hassan-Tower.jpg (cropped and colour-graded)
Marrakech photograph - Federico Mata, CC BY 3.0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Koutoubia,_Marrakech_-_panoramio.jpg (cropped and colour-graded)
Methodology, limitations and sources
The IPAI is a repeat-sales index jointly produced by Bank Al-Maghrib and ANCFCC from land-registration data. Base 100 is 2006. A property enters the method only when it has been transacted at least twice, which helps control for heterogeneity but does not represent every property or every new-development sale. A minimum transaction threshold applies to city and category estimates. The interpretation, calculations and forward-looking judgements are my proprietary analysis for Chestertons Morocco.
The Q1 2026 data cut was taken 35 days after quarter-end. Historical values can be revised as transactions are registered and additional repeat-sale pairs become available. The index is not seasonally adjusted, is not a dirham-per-square-metre series, does not measure rents or total investment returns, and should not be interpreted as a forecast.
